Global annual plug-in sales will reach 3 million by 2020

Every single plug-in vehicle sold today represents about 15 by the end of the decade. That's essentially the calculation that Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research) has made, using all the prediction tools at its disposal. In short, Navigant says global annual plug-in vehicles will reach 3 million units by 2020 and will account for about 3% of all light-duty vehicle sales at that time.

Navigant is basing some of its lofty forecast on the fact that plug-in vehicle sales rose 150% last year as more folks got comfortable with the idea of driving on electrons. US plug-in sales, excluding undefined sales for the Tesla Model S and low-volume models like the Fisker Karma extended-range plug-in, reached about 50,000 units last year, or about one out of every 285 new vehicles sold domestically. Year-to-date, plug-in vehicle sales may have more than doubled (Tesla doesn't disclose monthly numbers) to more than 30,000 units.

Whether this forecast is a bump-up from Navigant/Pike's previous one is anyone's guess since there's not recent apples-to-apples comparison. Pike said in 2011 that cumulative plug-in vehicle sales would reach 5.2 million units by 2017, when annual sales would be at about 2 million units.

Source : AutoBlogGreen, by Danny King, June 20, 2013