Dan Winslow's morning commute starts when he walks into his garage and unplugs his Chevrolet Volt. The mighty electric propulsion makes the 30 miles to the Statehouse whiz by for the Republican state representative from Norfolk. More importantly, Winslow said, the electric motor stays on until he reaches a downtown Boston garage for parking and a battery recharge -- a feature missing in conventional hybrid vehicles like the Toyota Prius -- that are designed to constantly switch between their electric motors and internal-combustion engines. This is why his Volt rarely needs gasoline, Winslow said: He gets 250 miles out of every gallon. "Had I known how much I use it, I would have bought it," said Winslow, who leases his Volt. "Every time I drive my car, somebody in OPEC cries, and that makes me happy." Electric and hybrid vehicles continue to gain loyal consumers. Tesla Motors recently paid off a $465 million federal loan nine years early. The industry saw 163,915 hybrid vehicles sold in the U.S. from Jan. 1 through April 30, up from 146,107 during the same period last year, and 31,948 plug-in hybrid cars, more than quadrupling the 7,942 sold during those months last year, according to the Electric Drive Transportation Association's website. Still, the numbers represent a mere fraction of the total passenger-vehicle sales in the country. All hybrid and plug-in vehicles, including batteries sold separately, made up 3.8% of the total car sales thus far this year, compared to 3.4% last year.
Experts say price is a factor.
In Brookline, for example, 1,048 cars, or 3.7% of all registered vehicles, are hybrid or electric, according to data from the state Registry of Motor Vehicles. The rate drops to 1.6 percent in neighboring Boston. In Greater Lowell, the hybrid/electric car ownership rate shifts outbound from 0.5 percent in Lowell to 1.2 percent in Chelmsford to 1.9 percent in Westford. But in Concord, 41 percent of passenger cars are hybrid or electric, compared to 21 percent in Bedford. Cosmin Laslau, analyst at Lux Research Inc. in Boston, said electric vehicles have had disappointing sales because of their prices, which are largely due to the cost of batteries. Those costs are not likely to drop soon, keeping the vehicles on the higher end of the price range, Laslau said. A new Chevrolet Volt typically costs about $39,000, compared to $35,000 to $37,000 for a Nissan Leaf. A Tesla Model S can cost up to $72,000. Toyota's Prius starts at $24,000. Gasoline savings will never pay for a $70,000 car purchase. But potential buyers consider it an alternative to conventional luxury vehicles like the Mercedes Benz and are willing to pay for cutting-edge technology, Laslau said. Chickery Kasouf, assistant professor at Worcester Polytechnic Institute School of Business, said education level also influences consumer behavior. Kasouf's expertise includes marketing, although he has not studied the hybrid/electric auto market. People in certain communities are more concerned about the environment and carbon emissions, he said. "Because of their background and lifestyles, they are willing to pay for it," Kasouf said. Hybrid and electric cars have come a long way, experts say. A half-dozen years ago, the Toyota Prius was still the symbol of fuel economy. Many early adopters gravitated toward that model and made it part of the highway landscape. Now, prospective hybrid owners enjoy a wide range of choices and can make comparisons. Because of price, Laslau forecasts only about 200,000 new full-electric and "heavy plug-in" vehicles will make it onto the road each year globally by 2020. In the meantime, the market for mild- and micro-hybrid vehicles is growing fast, according to Laslau, who projects 39 million of such vehicles will be sold annually by 2017. Mild-hybrid refers to vehicles that come with both an internal combustion engine and an electric motor but cannot run solely on the latter. Micro-hybrid isn't really hybrid; it saves energy by shutting down the internal combustion engine when the car is on standby, such as during a stop at a traffic light.
The option to add on the micro-hybrid feature -- which typically saves 3 percent to 5 percent in fuel -- is available for many conventional cars. For a Ford Fusion, the add-on costs $400 to $500, Laslau said. Micro-hybrid has been popular in Europe for years, but is relatively new to the U.S.
Mauricio Cordero, creative projects director for Groton-based collaborative 3Rivers Arts, bought a Honda Insight hybrid because he thought a plug-in vehicle that requires frequent charging wouldn't be conducive to apartment living in Lowell. The Insight also cost $6,000 less than a Prius and allows him to drive to Washington, D.C., without refilling the 10-gallon tank, he said. Cathy Driscoll Clark, of Lunenburg, said her husband, who commutes to Chelmsford, and her daughter in college in Connecticut bought used Toyota Priuses for less than $10,000 each. They chose Priuses because they were more familiar with them and because charger stations for plug-in vehicles aren't numerous, she said. Winslow said he chose the Volt because it operates solely on the electric motor during the first 40 miles. It's also an American car, he said. It takes about 4.5 hours to fully charge the car battery using a regular household outlet, and outlets at charger stations speed things up. The monthly cost of leasing a Volt comes down to $150 when factoring in the $200 monthly savings on gasoline, he said.
Source : SentinelandEnterprise.com, by Hiroko Sato, June 17, 2013
Every single plug-in vehicle sold today represents about 15 by the end of the decade. That's essentially the calculation that Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research) has made, using all the prediction tools at its disposal. In short, Navigant says global annual plug-in vehicles will reach 3 million units by 2020 and will account for about 3% of all light-duty vehicle sales at that time.
Navigant is basing some of its lofty forecast on the fact that plug-in vehicle sales rose 150% last year as more folks got comfortable with the idea of driving on electrons. US plug-in sales, excluding undefined sales for the Tesla Model S and low-volume models like the Fisker Karma extended-range plug-in, reached about 50,000 units last year, or about one out of every 285 new vehicles sold domestically. Year-to-date, plug-in vehicle sales may have more than doubled (Tesla doesn't disclose monthly numbers) to more than 30,000 units.
Whether this forecast is a bump-up from Navigant/Pike's previous one is anyone's guess since there's not recent apples-to-apples comparison. Pike said in 2011 that cumulative plug-in vehicle sales would reach 5.2 million units by 2017, when annual sales would be at about 2 million units.
Source : AutoBlogGreen, by Danny King, June 20, 2013
